Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 8.908405 10.237115 11.668944 13.323257 15.178462 17.191225 19.536563
2025-12-14 6.867819 8.643942 10.708566 13.272252 16.355496 19.928683 24.366452
2025-12-21 5.530903 7.399625 9.683998 12.657161 16.396904 20.915089 26.753415
2025-12-28 4.924713 6.946543 9.527302 13.022982 17.588351 23.297416 30.918136
2026-01-04 4.415075 6.525604 9.323727 13.247355 18.539609 25.354345 34.703328
2026-01-11 3.888309 6.009806 8.925721 13.149943 19.021542 26.789674 37.717359
2026-01-18 3.441500 5.548466 8.543994 13.016933 19.408779 28.076821 40.551110
2026-01-25 3.102789 5.203814 8.286306 13.019377 19.956356 29.577091 43.709513
2026-02-01 2.838709 4.941054 8.117554 13.122951 20.632113 31.262330 47.171869
2026-02-08 2.562213 4.627804 7.841010 13.034775 21.005796 32.516592 50.056920
2026-02-15 2.313426 4.332306 7.563069 12.915087 21.310022 33.664930 52.815396
2026-02-22 2.134071 4.133681 7.418910 12.985869 21.894140 35.232864 56.230499
2026-03-01 2.021108 4.042689 7.447776 13.342108 22.952021 37.574225 60.924191
2026-03-08 1.822223 3.778467 7.166261 13.170646 23.163192 38.637113 63.735622
2026-03-15 1.580857 3.408809 6.670858 12.600580 22.687329 38.600665 64.839984
2026-03-22 1.508208 3.351055 6.715683 12.950076 23.731078 40.978171 69.767175
2026-03-29 1.423870 3.261280 6.694265 13.178723 24.577981 43.068310 74.309276
2026-04-05 1.302539 3.084129 6.497377 13.079857 24.857707 44.247231 77.433961
2026-04-12 1.188906 2.910288 6.291653 12.948133 25.067403 45.310730 80.399108
2026-04-19 1.101804 2.783218 6.164615 12.950328 25.506324 46.762792 84.038807
2026-04-26 1.033411 2.689577 6.095008 13.053509 26.125421 48.533887 88.257041
2026-05-03 0.950855 2.554927 5.932048 12.965709 26.390656 49.707858 91.510870
2026-05-10 0.872603 2.421249 5.759767 12.846586 26.588008 50.765688 94.595260